Alex De Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: Baena has managed to win 41.6% of points on his second serve in the past six months, slightly trailing Minaur who has achieved 44.22%. Does this give Minaur an edge? Yes, as second serve strength is key in tough matches.
• Return Game Stats: In recent matches, Baena has won 47.62% of second serve return points compared to Minaur's 40.37%. For first serve returns, Baena holds an advantage with 29.46% over Minaur's 25.16%. Such stats favor Baena in games focused on strong returns.
• Under Pressure Analysis: Baena is more resilient under pressure, saving 57.44% of breakpoints, compared to Minaur's 48.82%, indicating a psychological edge in critical moments.
• Overall Performance: Over the last year, Minaur has a higher win rate with 66.13% victories compared to Baena's 53.57%. This suggests Minaur is in better form overall.
• Best Surface: Baena performs best on clay with a 62% win rate, while Minaur excels on grass, winning 68% of matches. Given the surface, each player's historical performance could be decisive.
• Player Level Competitions: Both players have competed on the Main tour, yet Minaur has a higher success rate, winning 66.67% of the matches, showcasing his aptitude against tougher competition.
• Head-to-Head Matches: Minaur leads their direct encounters 3-0, winning 6 out of 7 sets, indicating a clear historical advantage over Baena.
• Deciding Set Performance: If the match extends to a deciding set, Baena has the upper hand, winning 52% in the past year compared to Minaur's 43%.
• Opponent Quality Stats: Minaur has faced higher-ranked opponents (average rank 55.69), compared to Baena's average opponent rank of 133.66. This suggests Minaur is more experienced with high-caliber players.
• Break Point Conversion: Baena converts break points at a 35.94% rate, slightly better than Minaur's 32.28%, indicating Baena's slight edge when opportunities arise to break serve.

Editorial Prediction (July 1, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Baena and Minaur promises an intriguing battle. With Minaur showing a slightly stronger second serve performance, he could hold a service advantage. However, Baena's superior return capabilities might balance this out, especially if the encounter focuses on break opportunities.

Minaur's higher match win percentage and experience against higher-ranked players virtually paint him as the stronger contender. Still, the analysis reveals Baena has a knack for handling high-pressure situations better than Minaur. This could play a pivotal role, especially if the match heads into a deciding set, given Baena's slightly better recent deciding set record.

Their head-to-head stats clearly favor Minaur, who not only has never lost to Baena but has also convincingly dominated their previous encounters. While Baena has certain statistical advantages, the combination of Minaur’s past success, overall better form, and experience against superior competition suggests that Alex De Minaur is most likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming match.